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WEATHER WARNING: In early June, the World Meteorological Organisation confirmed that there were indications of a potentially strong El Niño event developing. Fuelled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, these conditions are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather over the coming months. For South Africa, that portends a possible drought, with implications for food prices and security.
WEATHER WARNING
26th June 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
TARIFF TUSSLE: After the US Supreme Court ruled President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs to be invalid, a 10% baseline tariff was then introduced. This tariff is due to expire in July. Now the administration is looking to implement tariffs of between 10% and 12.5% on 60 countries based on an investigation into unfair labour practices. South Africa, which is facing a 12.5% tariff, insists it is compliant with all domestic and international forced-labour obligations and says it stands ready to engage the US on the matter.
TARIFF TUSSLE
19th June 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
NO LONGER THEORETICAL: International Energy Agency executive director Fatih Birol has used the “vase is broken” analogy to describe the new global energy context following shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. “It has been always a question in the energy world . . . but it was a theoretical issue. Now it is real,” Birol said. This new reality meant that countries would pursue energy security policies premised on the potential of the waterway being closed yet again.
NO LONGER THEORETICAL
12th June 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
IN A VICE GRIP: Johannesburg residents and businesses are exposed daily to the spillover effects of municipal mismanagement. Driving is hazardous not only because of the proliferation of potholes, but the lack of road markings, as well as working streetlights and traffic lights. Eskom’s warning that it could interrupt power owing to the City of Johannesburg’s payment delinquency is unlikely to materialise. Nevertheless, the threat itself reinforced just how poorly South Africa’s economic hub is being governed.
IN A VICE GRIP:
5th June 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
EXPLOSIVE: South Africa’s latest official unemployment figure is extremely disheartening, having risen to 32.7% in the first quarter and leaving more than eight-million people out of work. Even more worrying are official figures showing that those aged 15 to 24 face the highest unemployment rate of 60.9%, followed by those aged 25 to 34 at 40.6%. Youth joblessness at such levels is a ticking bomb, even before the full disruption to labour markets that is now expected as firms integrate AI into work practices.
EXPLOSIVE:
29th May 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
POLITICAL STORM: Although President Cyril Ramaphosa has decided to legally review the independent panel’s report stating there was a prima facie case for him to answer before an impeachment committee in relation to the theft of foreign currency from his Phala Phala farm, the political fallout continues. Most South Africans don’t seem to have any immediate appetite for a change at the top, but the coming months will be ugly and could shift the mood and test the President’s own resilience.
POLITICAL STORM
22nd May 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
BACK ON TRACK: The Draft National Rail Masterplan sets out an ambitious vision for reviving the role of the railways in South Africa’s transport economy by 2050. The document is out for public comment until July 22, with events being held in all nine provinces in May and June to canvass feedback. While much is said about rail becoming the backbone, the real issue at stake is how best to lower the cost of logistics using all transport modes, including rail.
BACK ON TRACK:
15th May 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
FRAYED BLUE LINE: Revelations at the Madlanga Commission, which is probing criminality, political interference and corruption in the criminal justice system, may have brought to the fore what many have suspected for some time. Nevertheless, the level of criminal infiltration is beyond shocking. The parallel institution of charges against National Commissioner General Fannie Masemola point to potential malfeasance and/or criminal infiltration at the highest levels. Perhaps it’s time for all senior positions to be readvertised?
FRAYED BLUE LINE:
8th May 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
BOTTLENECKS: The disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has highlighted, yet again, how reliant the global economy is on that narrow stretch of waterway for critical fuels and other key commodities such as fertilisers. It’s opening is key. Yet it is also clear that this alone is insufficient for a normalisation of trade, given the damage to energy infrastructure as a result of the war.
BOTTLENECKS:
1st May 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
SHEDDING LIGHT: The negotiations between Eskom and the ferrochrome industry on a tariff that could prevent further smelter closures and job cuts were clearly not easy. Given that the 62c/kWh solution will need to be funded and there have traditionally been only two sources of such funding – consumers or taxpayers – it is only fair that the terms and conditions, together with the funding plan, are placed before the public. In this case, it’s up to the National Energy Regulator of South Africa to ensure some light is shed.
SHEDDING LIGHT:
24th April 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
REAL MOONSHOT
REAL MOONSHOT
17th April 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
INCLEMENT: Few would argue that the world has entered a most treacherous period. Besides the deadly hot wars that are leaving thousands dead and wounded and infrastructure in ruins, domestic politics just about everywhere has turned beyond ugly. Once tariffs, rising inequality, the active manipulation of information, the threat posed by unregulated AI to the labour market, and climate denialism are also taken into account, the risk of a perfect geopolitical storm feels all too real.
INCLEMENT:
10th April 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
EXTREME HIKES: South Africa is far away geographically from the war that has disrupted shipping through the key oil and gas chokepoint between Iran and Oman known as the Strait of Hormuz. Yet the affordability consequences are being felt closely by every South African. Much attention will now be given to how the fuel hikes spill over into the rest of the economy and how the monetary authorities respond to these inflationary pressures.
EXTREME HIKES:
3rd April 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
GETTING TOUGH: Many customers will be scrambling to switch off lights and appliances after the regulator granted Eskom hikes for this year that are higher than those that were initially approved, owing to a big calculation error by the regulator. But customers in municipalities that owe the utility money now face being cut off entirely, as Eskom moves more assertively to tackle arrear debt that has now breached R110-billion. An initial 14 municipalities have received notices.
GETTING TOUGH:
27th March 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
WARS OF DISTRACTION: The world has entered a dangerous new era where the globe’s superpower is ignoring legal guardrails put in place since the Second World War to engage in military ‘excursions’. When the ‘process is the punishment’, conflicts are not based on imminent threats, risks to human rights, or international security. But rather on a desire to weaken enemies, entrench hegemony, and as a tool of political distraction.
WARS OF DISTRACTION
20th March 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
GROWTH FOUNDATIONS: The foundations for South African growth, infrastructure, have been severely weakened over the past decade and a bit. Not only has too little been spent on maintenance and expansion, what has been invested has been spent inefficiently or lost to corruption. There are signs in the 2026 Budget of a possible turning point being reached in the composition of spending. Much will hinge, however, on the quality of implementation, as well as on bringing in new private funding and expertise.
GROWTH FOUNDATIONS
13th March 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
UNDER PRESSURE: While manufacturing has been under pressure in South Africa for more than a decade, the squeeze is now on across various key subsectors. Besides the closure of minerals processing capacity, including in ferroalloys and steel, the outlook for the flagship automotive industry is also worrying. It is nevertheless far from clear whether South Africa can afford the industrial and trade policy remedies being proposed.
UNDER PRESSURE:
6th March 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
TRANSMISSION TUSSLE: Organised business won a major victory when President Cyril Ramaphosa intervened to roll back an Eskom unbundling plan approved by the Department of Electricity and Energy in December. In his State of the Nation Address, he said the new State-owned Transmission System Operator must own the grid assets, which Eskom wanted retained by a subsidiary, and set a three-month deadline for coming up with a solution.
AT ODDS:
20th February 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
There is no question that tariffs are very much back in vogue, courtesy of US President Donald Trump. South Africa, too, is looking to tariffs to shore up industries that are under extreme pressure. However, tariffs are a blunt instrument and the implementation of higher tariffs is not cost-free, especially for hard-pressed consumers.
BLUNT INSTRUMENT
13th February 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
FEELING BULLISH: The gold bulls are definitely having their day. The upward price trend has been in place since late 2022 and there are no signs yet of a reversal. This, despite the fact that the precious metal has already broken all previous records. The only pity for South Africa is that the country is far from the leading producer it once was.
FEELING BULLISH
6th February 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
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