The outcome of the US midterm elections has opened a fresh opportunity for South Africa to avert its impending exclusion from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), says Exporters Western Cape chairperson Terry Gale.

He calls for an urgent senior diplomatic and trade mission to Washington before the exclusion takes effect on January 1.

“The stunning Republican defeat in the US midterm elections has changed the political landscape in Washington,” says Gale.

“For South Africa, it creates an opportunity to mount an urgent diplomatic effort to avert its exclusion from Agoa,” he says.

On Monday, November 2, the Trump administration announced its intention to terminate South Africa’s Agoa eligibility, following 60 days’ advance notice.

“This is a serious threat to affected exporters and workers, but the exclusion has not yet taken effect,” notes Gale.

“South Africa should use the remaining period to pursue every credible avenue for reconsideration.”

With the Democratic Party having won both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the Trump administration will face a substantially different Congress.

However, while the Republican losses represent a political setback for Trump, the recent elections did not remove him from office or automatically invalidate his administration’s trade decisions.

Gale warns that the timing requires immediate action.

“The incoming Congress takes office on 3 January, 2027, while South Africa’s exclusion is scheduled for 1 January.

“Preventing an interruption in benefits therefore requires action before the new congressional majorities assume office. Waiting for January would be a serious strategic mistake.”

Gale says the proposed mission should carry a clear presidential mandate and be supported by credible representatives of business, organised labour and the Government of National Unity.

It should engage the White House, the US Trade Representative, the State Department, congressional leaders from both parties and American businesses with a direct interest in the relationship.

“That mission must arrive with practical proposals. Washington has cited trade and investment barriers, corruption and national security and foreign policy concerns,” he notes.

“South Africa should seek precise, measurable requirements for continued eligibility, address substantiated concerns within its constitutional framework, and demonstrate how preserving the relationship serves American, as well as South African interests.”

Gale identifies three realistic scenarios, starting with a negotiated reconsideration before January.

Here an agreement addressing specific concerns could allow the administration to withdraw its intended exclusion, with congressional and business advocacy helping to create the political conditions for that outcome.

The second is a congressional effort to protect or restore South Africa’s access through legislation.

“Democratic control creates an opportunity to pursue this, but success would require more than sympathetic statements.

“Legislation would face Senate procedural hurdles and would ordinarily require the President’s signature, or sufficient support to override a veto. Republican allies would therefore remain essential,” says Gale.

The third is that exclusion proceeds despite these efforts.

“South Africa must simultaneously prepare targeted support for exposed industries, diversify export markets and continue pursuing a route back into the programme. Diplomatic optimism must be accompanied by economic preparation.

“The election has opened a political opportunity. Whether that opportunity protects South African jobs will depend on the speed, credibility and substance of our diplomatic response,” adds Gale.