The International Energy Agency (IEA) says prevailing energy security concerns linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have placed renewables at the top of the policy agenda and will support a further acceleration in installations over the period to 2031.

This growth will be supported by an acceleration in renewable capacity additions in emerging and developing economies, with installations in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa forecast to almost triple in the 2026-to-2031 period compared with the previous six years.

For the first time, the amount of renewables capacity added in emerging and developing economies outside China is expected to match the amount added in advanced economies.

“The new chapter of the renewables growth story is a truly global one as their deployment spreads well beyond major markets into every corner of the world,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said when releasing the report on November 6.

“This is making them a key pillar of the global power sector. Today, they account for a third of global electricity generation; in the next five years, they will be getting closer to half of it.”

The IEA’s ‘Renewables 2026’ report shows that China, where policy changes have slowed deployments, will remain the largest contributor to the global rise, but its share will decline from over 60% in 2025 to an average of 53% over the forecast period.

India is emerging as the world’s second-largest growth market, with its total renewable capacity set to more than double by 2031.

AFRICAN ADDITIONS

The report forecasts that sub-Saharan Africa will add over 120 GW of renewable electricity capacity over 2026-2031, almost doubling today’s installed base and marking a significant acceleration from 2020-2025.

Growth is expected to be concentrated in South Africa and Nigeria, which together account for over 40% of the regional capacity expansion, followed by Kenya, Ethiopia and Angola.

“The main structural shift in the region is the rapid expansion of distributed solar PV,” the report states, indicating that utility-scale PV growth will remain concentrated in South Africa, which will account for 48% of the region’s utility-scale additions.

“Residential, commercial and off-grid systems account for nearly two-thirds of all new solar PV capacity over the forecast period, led by Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya, but increasingly supported by broader uptake across smaller markets.”

Overall, the report forecasts that global renewables capacity will increase by almost 4 800 GW in the 2026-2031 period, 57% more than was added during the previous six-year period.

Solar PV is set to account for more than three-quarters of this capacity growth, followed by onshore wind.

Renewables are forecast to generate almost 45% of global electricity in 2031, up from 33% in 2025, with electricity generation from wind and solar PV combined more than doubling globally and reaching over 28% of total power generation by 2031.

The IEA says the rapid expansion in variable renewables capacity will require stronger grids and interconnections, more affordable storage and dispatchable supply, as well as enhanced demand-side flexibility.

CURTAILMENT RISES

The report notes that technical curtailment of wind and solar PV output in key markets almost doubled in both 2024 and 2025.

Curtailment reached almost 200 TWh last year and could exceed 800 TWh by 2031, the equivalent of almost 8% of total variable renewable generation.

In addition, the number of hours of negative electricity prices has continued to rise across Europe, reducing revenues for merchant projects and projects operating under corporate power purchase agreements, and testing the market-based deployment model that has expanded rapidly over the past decade.

“Battery storage deployment is accelerating in many countries and addressing some of these challenges, but not fast enough,” the report states.

The IEA says the highest priority is for countries to ensure that investment in electricity grids keeps pace with the growth of renewable capacity, complemented by reforms to speed up the connection of new renewable power installations to electricity networks.

The combined capacity of advanced-stage renewable energy and storage projects waiting for grid connections worldwide increased by 60% over the past year to 3 000 GW, four times the wind and solar PV capacity connected to the grid last year.

The report highlights the emergence of digital technologies, including AI, which it says can help shift demand towards periods when renewable power supply is abundant, allowing better use of variable renewable generation sources.

“Together, these measures will be crucial to ensuring that the rapid expansion of renewables translates into more secure, affordable and reliable energy supplies worldwide.”