Goldman sees room for South Africa asset rally on credit upgrade
Markets are not pricing in the probability of South Africa’s return to investment grade, leaving scope for government bonds, stocks and the rand to rally, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The country could regain its investment status as soon as 2028 as ratings companies reward its improving finances and economic growth, a Goldman team including economist Andrew Matheny wrote in a note.
“Our baseline is that South Africa regains its first IG rating in 2028, albeit with two-sided risks to timing,” Matheny said. “Markets at this stage in our assessment largely do not price this in.”
Goldman’s analysis suggests scope for the government 10-year local-currency yield to fall more than 100 basis points to 7.6%, and the sovereign spread, or yield premium of dollar bonds over US treasuries, to outperform investment-grade emerging markets. Five-year credit-default swaps, at around 116 basis points on Tuesday, may fall to about 100 basis points, the analysts wrote.
“Given the larger rally in fixed income relative to equities observed to date, we see comparatively more structural upside to the latter over time if macroeconomic improvements continue,” the team wrote. They also see about 9% upside for the rand versus the dollar based their fair-value estimate, but “realising this upside depends in part on the broader dollar,” they wrote.
Africa’s largest economy was cut to junk in 2017 as growth slowed and public debt soared. But improvements in the fiscal picture, growth and the policy backdrop will likely result in credit upgrades over the next year, the analysts wrote.
S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s Ratings assess South Africa at BB and Baa2, respectively, or two levels below investment grade. Both have a positive outlook on the debt, suggesting an upgrade is likely.
Article Enquiry
Email Article
Save Article
Feedback
To advertise email advertising@creamermedia.co.za or click here
Projects
Latest Multimedia
Latest News
Showroom
Iritron delivers advanced automation, control, and optimisation solutions to the Mining, Minerals & Metals, Consumer Package Goods and...
VISIT SHOWROOM
Announcements
What's On
Subscribe to improve your user experience...
Option 1 (equivalent of R125 a month):
Receive a weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine
(print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
Receive daily email newsletters
Access to full search results
Access archive of magazine back copies
Access to Projects in Progress
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
Option 2 (equivalent of R375 a month):
All benefits from Option 1
PLUS
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports, in PDF format, on various industrial and mining sectors
including Electricity; Water; Energy Transition; Hydrogen; Roads, Rail and Ports; Coal; Gold; Platinum; Battery Metals; etc.
Already a subscriber?
Forgotten your password?
Receive weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine (print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
➕
Recieve daily email newsletters
➕
Access to full search results
➕
Access archive of magazine back copies
➕
Access to Projects in Progress
➕
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
RESEARCH CHANNEL AFRICA
R4500 (equivalent of R375 a month)
SUBSCRIBEAll benefits from Option 1
➕
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports on various industrial and mining sectors, in PDF format, including on:
Electricity
➕
Water
➕
Energy Transition
➕
Hydrogen
➕
Roads, Rail and Ports
➕
Coal
➕
Gold
➕
Platinum
➕
Battery Metals
➕
etc.
Receive all benefits from Option 1 or Option 2 delivered to numerous people at your company
➕
Multiple User names and Passwords for simultaneous log-ins
➕
Intranet integration access to all in your organisation
