In its forty-sixth annual forecast, now entitled 'Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2060', released at its seventieth General Conference on Monday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) predicted that global nuclear energy generation capacity could increase by more than 200% by 2060. (This is the first edition of the report to look out to 2060.) Small modular reactors (SMRs) are set to play a major part in this expansion.

“The IAEA projections show the increasing role of nuclear power in meeting the world’s growing electricity needs,” highlighted IAEA director-general Rafael Mariano Grossi. “To realise this potential, investment in new nuclear capacity and reactor lifetime extensions will be essential.”

As of December 31, 2025, there were 413 nuclear power reactors in operation around the world. They had a total generation capacity of 377.1 GW(e). The low growth case forecast saw that becoming 696 GW(e) by 2060, a nearly 100% increase over 2025, while the prediction for the high growth trajectory was 1 284 GW(e), an increase of some 3.4 times over the 2025 figure.

Actual total global nuclear generation last year was 2 689.1 TW, which was a 1.1% increase, year-on-year. But the equivalent rise in total electricity generation was 2.7%. The slower growth in nuclear electricity meant that the sector’s share in total global electricity generation declined from 8.7% in 2024 to 8.4% last year.

The regions which would see the strongest growth in new nuclear power would be Central and Eastern Asia. Together, last year these regions had a nuclear capacity of 114 GW(e). Should they follow the high growth path, this would rise to 407 GW(e) by 2060.

SMRs would be very important in this global nuclear growth. In the low growth forecast, by 2060 they would account for 23% of all new capacity; in the high growth forecast, that figure would be 28%. SMR uptake would be particularly strong in North America, where they could account for some 60% of new nuclear capacity, and in Latin America and the Caribbean, where they would contribute 40%, in both the low and high growth forecasts.

Of course, nuclear expansion had to take into account the retirement of existing reactors. The report pointed out that 66% of existing nuclear power reactors had been operating for more than 30 years, while 45% had been operating for more than 40 years. In the low growth case, nearly 66% of these would be retired by 2060, while the figure for the high growth case would be some 33%. These retirements would have to be offset.

And, the IAEA noted, this offsetting had already begun. Last year, seven reactors, with a total generating capacity of 2.8 GW(e), had been retired. But three new reactors, with a total capacity of 3 GW(e), had been connected to the grid, while construction had started on 12 new reactors, with an expected total capacity of 14.3 GW(e).

“In addition, lifetime extensions and refurbishment programmes are underway in several regions to extend operation of existing large nuclear fleets, as well as new policy measures to support the competitiveness of existing reactors in deregulated electricity markets,” reported the IAEA.