Africa analyst Chris Edyegu examines Niger’s surprising economic resilience under military rule – and the growing security crisis threatening to undermine it In the three years since July 2023, when the Conseil national pour la sauvegarde de la patrie (CNSP), led by General Abdourahamane Tiani (Tchiani), overthrew democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum (2021–2023), Niger has experienced a contradictory trajectory. The economy has proved to be more resilient than expected, supported by strong oil-driven economic growth, while the domestic security situation continues to deteriorate.

Despite a raft of regional sanctions following the coup, rising jihadist violence and drastic cuts in foreign aid from major Western powers, including the US and France, Niger’s economy has not collapsed as some predicted it would. The country is estimated to have achieved 9% to 10% economic growth in 2024 and about 7% in 2025, with most of that growth coming from oil revenues accounting for around 9% of GDP. Agriculture is considered the second-largest contributor to Niger’s economic growth.

A key contributor to Niger’s resilient economic growth has been key investments and the Niger-Benin pipeline, which was close to completion when the coup occurred. Despite the pipeline’s completion in late 2023 and crude exports commencing in 2024, the border has been closed for the past three years due to tensions. However, since the election of Romuald Wadagni as President of Benin in May, there have been renewed efforts to resolve tensions between the two countries.

The International Monetary Fund warned on August 4 that, despite the flow of Nigerien oil exports through Benin, the continued closure of the Niger-Benin border “continues to weigh on trade”, as it is disrupting the flow of essential goods, slowing business operations, impacting on customs revenue, and contributing to partial joblessness. In a notable development, Benin’s government spokesperson, Wilfried Houngbédji, said on August 5 that Benin had completed all actions required to normalise relations with Niger, including high-level talks and the formation of an expert committee, and that the final decision now rests with Niger.

Alongside its oil exports, uranium – a key strategic natural resource – has become increasingly central to Niger’s economy and foreign policy, while also emerging as a primary focus of the country’s growing assertiveness over its resources. Since it assumed power in July 2023, Niger’s ruling junta under Tiani has pursued an aggressive ‘resource nationalism’ agenda as part of its wider economic strategy, particularly over its uranium sector, most notably revoking mining permits held by French firm Orano.

Niger holds some of the world’s most significant uranium resources and its junta leaders have consistently emphasised that previous mining agreements, particularly with foreign investors, did not reflect the full value of the country’s natural endowments. Most recently, there has been interest from Romania’s semi-State-controlled nuclear energy corporation, Nuclearelectrica, to purchase 300 t of the 1 000 t of uranium concentrate confiscated from Orano and currently stockpiled at Niamey Airport. However, Niger’s ongoing legal disputes with Orano continue to complicate any uranium sales.

Meanwhile, an increasingly deteriorating security situation contradicts Niger’s economic resilience. Despite the junta’s claim that its seizure of power was justified on the grounds that it would bolster national security, jihadist violence in Niger has intensified. This is particularly the case in the Tillabéri region in western Niger, the conflict hotspot where attacks against civilians and armed forces have become common and deadly. The Tillabéri region, which borders Mali to the north and Burkina Faso to the west, saw around 1 200 deaths recorded in 2025 alone from jihadist attacks and clashes between Islamist groups – including Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimeen and Islamic State in the Sahel Province. According to data from the Australia-headquartered Institute for Economics and Peace, Niger ranks among the most terrorism-affected and least-peaceful countries in the world.

Niger’s security situation has deteriorated despite the junta’s decision to forge stronger security relations with Russia. Within a year of capturing power in July 2023, the junta broke its long-standing military partnerships with France, the US and the European Union, while pursuing closer ties with Russia and joining forces with fellow coup-impacted countries Mali and Burkina Faso to form the Alliance des États du Sahel (Alliance of Sahel States) – or AES – in September 2023. This new regional alignment saw the AES States dramatically formally withdraw from the regional bloc, the Economic Community of West African States, following its imposition of sanctions in response to their respective military coups.

Meanwhile, despite Russia providing weaponry and military training to Niger, the shift to Russia has not effectively replaced the air support and intelligence previously provided by the US and France.

Three years since the coup, Niger presents a contradictory picture of a resilient domestic economy – anchored by oil exports and resource nationalism – alongside worsening insecurity. Whether the junta can alter this remains unclear, particularly amid growing pressure from rising jihadist violence.